ABSTRACT
Obesity, type 2 diabetes (T2D), and severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are closely associated. The aim of this study was to elucidate the casual and mediating relationships of human serum metabolites on the pathways from obesity/T2D to COVID-19 using Mendelian randomization (MR) techniques. We performed two-sample MR to study the causal effects of 309 metabolites on COVID-19 severity and susceptibility, based on summary statistics from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of metabolites (n = 7824), COVID-19 phenotypes (n = 2,586,691), and obesity (n = 322,154)/T2D traits (n = 898,130). We conducted two-sample network MR analysis to determine the mediating metabolites on the causal path from obesity/T2D to COVID-19 phenotypes. We used multivariable MR analysis (MVMR) to discover causal metabolites independent of body mass index (BMI). Our MR analysis yielded four causal metabolites that increased the risk of severe COVID-19, including 2-stearoylglycerophosphocholine (OR 2.15; 95% CI 1.48-3.11), decanoylcarnitine (OR 1.32; 95% CI 1.17-1.50), thymol sulfate (OR 1.20; 95% CI 1.10-1.30), and bradykinin-des-arg(9) (OR 1.09; 95% CI 1.05-1.13). One significant mediator, gamma-glutamyltyrosine, lay on the causal path from T2D/obesity to severe COVID-19, with 16.67% (0.64%, 32.70%) and 6.32% (1.76%, 10.87%) increased risk, respectively, per one-standard deviation increment of genetically predicted T2D and BMI. Our comprehensive MR analyses identified credible causative metabolites, mediators of T2D and obesity, and obesity-independent causative metabolites for severe COVID-19. These biomarkers provide a novel basis for mechanistic studies for risk assessment, prognostication, and therapeutic purposes in COVID-19.
ABSTRACT
AIMS: We assessed how altered diagnostic processes and criteria for gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) recommended by the United Kingdom (UK), Canada and Australia for use during the COVID-19 pandemic would affect both GDM frequency and related adverse outcomes. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 5974 HAPO study women with singleton pregnancies who underwent 75 g OGTTs and HbA1c assays between 24 and 32 weeks' gestation and who received no treatment for GDM. RESULTS: All post COVID-19 modified pathways reduced GDM frequency - UK (81%), Canada (82%) and Australia (25%). Canadian women whose GDM would remain undetected post COVID-19 (missed GDMs) displayed similar rates of pregnancy complications to those with post COVID-19 GDM. Using UK modifications, the missed GDM group were at slightly lower risk whilst the women missed using the Australian modifications were at substantially lower risk. CONCLUSIONS: The modifications in GDM diagnosis proposed for the UK, Canada and Australia result in differing reductions of GDM frequency. Each has both potential benefits in terms of reduction in potential exposure to COVID-19 and costs in terms of missed opportunities to influence pregnancy and postpartum outcomes. These factors should be considered when deciding which protocol is most appropriate for a particular context.